The Fifth ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-5) was organised in Singapore from 18-19 November 2015 by the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), as host of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC). This event was supported and co-sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID). ASEANCOF-5 was attended by the National Meteorological Services (NMSs) of all 10 ASEAN Member countries: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The meeting was also attended by experts from the WMO Global Producing Centres (GPC): Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Australia, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), National Centers for Environmental Protection (NCEP, NOAA), WMO Lead Center for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME), as well as the APEC Climate Centre (APCC), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), and the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES). End-user representatives from the hydrological sector, coordinated by the Global Water Partnership South East Asia (GWP-SEA), and from the disaster-risk management agencies, coordinated by the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance, (AHA Centre) were also present.
Consensus Outlook for the Boreal Winter Monsoon (DJF 2015-2016) Rainfall and Temperature over Southeast Asia
For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon season (Dec-Jan-Feb), there is a strongly enhanced probability of below normal rainfall over the Philippines and the north-eastern part of Borneo Island. Over the eastern Maritime Continent and over the northern part of Mainland Southeast Asia, there are slightly enhanced probabilities of above normal rainfall. Elsewhere over the region, there are slightly enhanced probabilities for normal or below normal rainfall.
Above normal temperatures are very likely over much of the Southeast Asia region for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon season (Dec-Jan-Feb), with the highest probabilities over the central and western Maritime Continent.
The forum would like to thank the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member countries for conveying their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres and other participating international climate modelling centres for their products and expertise made available for this climate outlook forum, as well as the participants from the end-user communities coordinated by GWP-SEA and AHA Centre for their contributions. The forum would also like to thank the WMO Secretariat and the USAID for providing support and sponsorship for this event, and to IRI and APCC for coordinating the Pre-COF training workshop.