Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 Nov – 15 Nov 2018)

Issued 1 Nov 2018
valid for weeks 1 and 2: 1 Nov – 15 Nov


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook



The prevailing dry conditions over the northern ASEAN region are expected to continue in the first two weeks of November 2018. However, in week 2, drier conditions are likely to be confined mainly over the northern Philippines and the northern South China Sea areas.

During the period, the southward shift of the monsoon rainband is likely to bring an increase in shower activities to the equatorial ASEAN region.

Although the MJO signal is currently weak, some models forecast the MJO to re-emerge and may strengthen towards week 2. This could contribute to wetter conditions over the equatorial region, namely northern Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia and possibly western Borneo.

Warmer temperatures expected over the inland areas of northern Southeast Asia in the first fortnight of November 2018.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.