Subseasonal Weather Outlook (12 – 25 December 2022)

Issued: 9 December 2022
First forecast week: 12 December – 18 December
Second forecast week: 19 December – 25 December


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the western Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (12 – 25 December). Wetter conditions are also predicted over the northeastern Maritime Continent in Week 2 (19 – 25 December).

Cooler than usual temperature is expected in Week 1 (12 – 18 December) over much of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia and the western Maritime Continent. In Week 2 (19 – 25 December), these cooler conditions are predicted to ease over eastern Mainland Southeast Asia and persist elsewhere. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of Myanmar in the next fortnight (12 – 25 December).

No discernible Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present in the first week of December based on the RMM index. There is disagreement between the models regarding MJO development, although most models predict any MJO signal to be weak and stay within the unit circle in the RMM diagram during the forecast period.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.