Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 31 October 2019)

Issued 16 October 2019
Valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 October – 31 October


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is presently over Africa , but is expected to be short-lived. Its influence extending into the western Maritime Continent is limited to week 3, bringing wetter conditions over the equatorial ASEAN region and parts of Viet Nam. Drier conditions can also be expected for most parts of the northern ASEAN region.

With the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) expected to remain in the positive phase, drier conditions over southern Sumatra and the Java Sea area may persist through the fortnight.

Warmer-than-average conditions are expected over the Mekong sub-region, Java and southern parts of Sumatra, coinciding with the drier conditions there.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.