Subseasonal Weather Outlook (2 – 15 November 2020)

Issued 30 October 2020
First forecast week: 2 November – 8 November
Second forecast week: 9 November – 15 November


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Drier conditions are predicted over the western Maritime Continent and southern Mainland Southeast Asia next week (2 – 8 November), easing in the second week (9 – 15 November). Parts of this region may however, experience near-normal rainfall, particularly along eastern coasts of Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula.

Wetter conditions are predicted over northern Myanmar in the first week (2 – 8 November). Wetter conditions are also predicted over northern Philippines during this first week, possibly extending to the west in the second week (9 – 15 November), although the location and extent of these wetter conditions will depend on tropical cyclone development.

No significant regional temperatures anomalies are expected in Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (2 – 15 November).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal is present over the Pacific (Phase 6). Most models predict the MJO to continue propagating eastwards, potentially strengthening over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) in the second week.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.