Regional Haze Situation

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Latest Weather and Haze Situation

Showers prevailed over most of the ASEAN region today, apart from parts of Sumatra and the Lesser Sunda Islands where it was relatively drier. Few hotspots were detected in Sumatra, Thailand and Myanmar, but no significant smoke plumes were observed from satellite imagery. The full extent of the hotspot and smoke haze situation over the ASEAN region could not be determined due to cloud cover.

Weather and Haze Outlook

Over the next few days, wet weather is likely to continue over the ASEAN region, except over the Lesser Sunda Islands where drier conditions are expected. Isolated hotspots and smoke plumes may still develop over drier areas in the region. The prevailing winds over areas south of the Equator are forecast to blow mainly from the east to southeast. The prevailing winds over areas north of the Equator are likely to blow from the southwest to west, except over the Mekong sub-region and the equatorial region where light and variable winds are expected.

  • All maps are to be used solely for displaying meteorological/geophysical information, and not for any other purpose. All maps are not to scale and for illustrative purpose only.
  • The hotspots depicted on the map are derived from the NOAA satellite and they represent locations with possible fires. Hotspots may go undetected due to cloudy conditions or incomplete satellite pass.
  • At Alert Level 0 and Alert Level 1, the regional haze situation is updated once a day at 0900 UTC. The regional haze situation is updated more frequently at 0300 UTC and 0900 UTC upon activation of Alert Level 2 or Alert Level 3. Updates at 0300 UTC display hotspot information from night-time passes of the NOAA-20 satellite. Fewer hotspots were typically detected at night as fire activities usually peak during the day.
  • Reprocessed satellite data will be availed at a later timing. The hotspot information derived from satellite data reprocessed may differ slightly from that received near real-time but reprocessing is necessary for better quality data.
  • The 2500 ft winds (depicted by arrows) are model analysis winds.

Seasonal Forecast for September – November 2025

Summary of Outlook

In August 2025, Southwest Monsoon conditions persisted over the ASEAN region, characterised by wet weather over the northern ASEAN region and drier conditions over the southern ASEAN region. The low-level winds over the region blew mainly from the southeast or southwest. From the latter half of October, the Southwest Monsoon conditions typically transition into the inter-monsoon period as the monsoon rainband shifts southwards towards the Equator. During this period, the equatorial region usually experiences increased shower activity and the prevailing winds are likely to turn light and variable in direction.

For the September to November (SON) 2025 period, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the Maritime Continent and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. ENSO neutral conditions are predicted for September, with the potential for La Niña conditions to develop in October – November 2025. There are signs of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) developing, with models predict negative IOD conditions throughout September – November 2025. Both La Niña and negative IOD events tend to bring wetter conditions to parts of Southeast Asia. Above-normal temperature is predicted for much of Southeast Asia for SON 2025.

The traditional dry season over the southern ASEAN region is likely to last until October 2025. While above-normal rainfall is forecast over most parts of the region, drier conditions can still be expected at times, particularly over Peninsular Malaysia and the northern and central parts of Sumatra, where below-normal rainfall is forecast. There remains a risk of transboundary smoke haze as hotspots with smoke plumes/haze may develop in fire-prone areas, particularly during periods of drier conditions. On the other hand, over the northern ASEAN region, the overall hotspot and smoke haze situation is expected to remain subdued under the wet weather conditions throughout the outlook period.

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ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

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Related Website

ASEAN Haze Online

Recent Updates

15

Sep

Review of Regional Weather for August 2025
During August 2025, many parts of Southeast Asia experienced above-average rainfall (Figure 1). Most of the Maritime Continent recorded positive (wetter) anomalies in both datasets (GSMaP-NRT and CMORPH-Blended), although CMORH-Blended (Figure 1, right) recorded negative (drier) anomalies over much of the…
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10

Sep

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (15 – 28 September 2025)
Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the equatorial region and southwestern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (15 – 28 September). Drier conditions are predicted over central and…
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28

Aug

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 – 14 September 2025)
Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the equatorial region in Week 2 (8 – 14 September).
No significant regional temperature anomalies are predicted…
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