Regional Haze Situation

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Latest Weather and Haze Situation

Rainy weather prevailed over most parts of the ASEAN region today, except over Java, the Lesser Sunda Islands, and Sulawesi where the weather was relatively drier. Overall in the region, hotspot activity remained subdued under widespread shower activities. Few hotspots were detected in Thailand, Viet Nam, Kalimantan, Sarawak, and Sumatra, but no smoke plumes were observed.

Weather and Haze Outlook

Showers are forecast for many parts of the ASEAN region in the coming days. However, brief periods of drier conditions are forecast for some parts of central and southern Sumatra, as well as southern Borneo. Isolated hotspots, occasionally with localised smoke plumes, may develop if dry weather persists over the fire-prone areas there. The prevailing winds are forecast to blow mainly from the southwest over areas north of the Equator, except the Philippines where variable winds are forecast due to the influence of Tropical Storm Guchol over the Philippine Sea. For areas south of the Equator, southeasterly winds are forecast.

  • All maps are to be used solely for displaying meteorological/geophysical information, and not for any other purpose. All maps are not to scale and for illustrative purpose only.
  • The hotspots depicted on the map are derived from the NOAA satellite and they represent locations with possible fires. Hotspots may go undetected due to cloudy conditions or incomplete satellite pass.
  • At Alert Level 0 and Alert Level 1, the regional haze situation is updated once a day at 0900 UTC. The regional haze situation is updated more frequently at 0300 UTC and 0900 UTC upon activation of Alert Level 2 or Alert Level 3. Updates at 0300 UTC display hotspot information from night-time passes of the NOAA-20 satellite. Fewer hotspots were typically detected at night as fire activities usually peak during the day.
  • Reprocessed satellite data will be availed at a later timing. The hotspot information derived from satellite data reprocessed may differ slightly from that received near real-time but reprocessing is necessary for better quality data.
  • The 2500 ft winds (depicted by arrows) are model analysis winds.

Seasonal Forecast for June – August 2023

Summary of Outlook

Southwest Monsoon conditions are expected to be established from June 2023 and persist throughout the June to August (JJA) 2023 period. In the northern ASEAN region, the Southwest Monsoon is associated with the traditional rainy season that often brings widespread and persistent shower activities. Over the southern ASEAN region, the Southwest Monsoon season is characterised by drier conditions compared to other times of the year, as the monsoon rain band typically lies further north from the Equator. Overall, the prevailing low-level winds in the ASEAN region blow mainly from the southeast or southwest during this period.

For the June to August (JJA) 2023 period, an increased chance of below-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the southern ASEAN region, with highest likelihood over the southern Maritime Continent. ENSO neutral conditions are present but are likely to transition into El-Niño in the next few months. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is predicted to develop during June – August 2023. Warmer-than-normal temperature is predicted for much of the ASEAN region.

Hotspot activity in the northern ASEAN region is expected to be generally subdued by the prevailing wet weather throughout JJA 2023. In contrast, extended periods of dry weather are likely to prevail over the southern ASEAN region. Increased hotspot activity and smoke haze development can be expected over the fire-prone areas, with a risk of transboundary haze affecting parts of the region. In addition, there is an elevated chance for the hotspot and haze situation in the southern ASEAN region to be the most intense since 2019, contributed by an impending El Niño and positive IOD, with below-normal rainfall predicted for many parts of the region.

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ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

20th ASEAN COF

Related Website

ASEAN Haze Online

Recent Updates

6

June

Regional Climate – El Nino / La Nina
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) monitoring system state is “Neutral”. The Nino3.4 index currently indicates ENSO-neutral conditions, along with the atmospheric indicators (cloudiness and wind anomalies). However…
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1

June

Seasonal Forecast for June – August 2023
Southwest Monsoon conditions are expected to be established from June 2023 and persist throughout the June to August (JJA) 2023 period. In the northern ASEAN region, the Southwest Monsoon is associated with the traditional rainy season that often brings widespread and persistent shower activities. Over the southern ASEAN region…
More details

1

June

20th ASEAN COF (May 2023, Online)
The Twentieth session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-20) was organised by ASMC and the ASEANCOF Working Group. Participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal summer monsoon 2023 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for the June-July-August (JJA) 2023 outlook was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from different NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions for Southeast Asia.
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