Regional Haze Situation

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Latest Weather and Haze Situation

Shower activities and cloudy conditions prevailed over much of the ASEAN region today. Relatively drier weather was observed over southern Sumatra and Kalimantan, where isolated hotspots were detected. However, no significant smoke haze was observed.

Weather and Haze Outlook

In the next few days, rainy weather is forecast over most parts of the ASEAN region. While the showers are expected to help subdue the overall smoke haze situation, some isolated hotspots and smoke plumes can still be expected in areas that experience dry conditions. Under the influence of Tropical Storm Lupit to the northwest of the Philippines, moderate to strong southwesterly winds are forecast over areas north of the equator. For areas south of the equator, the prevailing winds are forecast to blow mainly from the southeast.

 

  • All maps are to be used solely for displaying meteorological/geophysical information, and not for any other purpose. All maps are not to scale and for illustrative purpose only.
  • The hotspots depicted on the map are derived from the NOAA satellite and they represent locations with possible fires. Hotspots may go undetected due to cloudy conditions or incomplete satellite pass.
  • At Alert Level 0 and Alert Level 1, the regional haze situation is updated once a day at 0900 UTC. The regional haze situation is updated thrice daily at 0200 UTC, 0500 UTC and 0900 UTC upon activation of Alert Level 2 or Alert Level 3. Updates at 0200 and 0500 UTC display hotspot information from night-time passes of the NOAA-20 satellite. Fewer hotspots were typically detected at night as fire activities usually peak during the day.
  • Reprocessed satellite data will be availed at a later timing. The hotspot information derived from satellite data reprocessed may differ slightly from that received near real-time but reprocessing is necessary for better quality data.
  • The 2500 ft winds (depicted by arrows) are model analysis winds.

Seasonal Forecast for July-August-September 2021

Summary of Outlook

Southwest Monsoon conditions are expected to continue in July 2021 as the prevailing low-level winds over the ASEAN region strengthen and blow from the southeast or southwest, with the passage of the monsoon rain band further north of the equator in the second half of the month. The Southwest Monsoon season is the traditional dry season for the southern ASEAN region, which typically brings extended periods of dry conditions over the region. For the northern ASEAN region, the Southwest Monsoon is the traditional wet season.

For the July to September 2021 period, models predict an increased chance of above-normal rainfall for most of the equatorial ASEAN region from 8°N to 10°S. ENSO-neutral conditions are forecast to continue for the next three months. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is close to the negative state and models are forecasting a negative IOD for the July to September 2021 period. A negative IOD tends to bring above-average rainfall for the southern ASEAN region for this time of the year. Warmer-than-usual temperature is expected for most of the ASEAN region except for Borneo and southern Sumatra where near- to above-normal temperature is predicted.

The dry season for the southern ASEAN region is expected to extend from July to October 2021. During these months, isolated to scattered hotspots are likely during dry periods and widespread hotspots can be expected during extended dry periods which may lead to an increased risk of transboundary haze occurrence. Nonetheless, due to predicted above-normal rainfall for the southern ASEAN region in July-September 2021, a recurrence of a similar 2015 (El Niño year) or a 2019 (positive IOD year) severe haze event is unlikely. Shower activities are expected to persist for the northern ASEAN region during this period, and help to subdue hotspot and smoke haze activities.

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ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

16th ASEAN COF

Related Website

ASEAN Haze Online

Recent Updates

23

July

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (26 July – 8 August 2021)
Drier conditions are expected in the next fortnight (26 July – 8 August) over much of the northern ASEAN region. While the outlook is for generally drier than average conditions for the area outlined, there still may be …
More detail

15

July

Start of Dry Season for the Southern ASEAN Region
In recent days, drier weather has been observed over parts of the southern ASEAN region, particularly in the southern parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan…
ASMC Media Release – Start of southern ASEAN dry season
More detail

15

July

Review of Regional Haze Situation for June 2021
The ASEAN region transitioned to Southwest Monsoon conditions in June 2021, with prevailing winds over regions south of the equator blowing from the southeast while prevailing winds over regions north of the equator blew mainly from the southwest …
More detail