Regional Haze Situation

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Latest Weather and Haze Situation

The weather over most of the northern ASEAN region remained dry and isolated hotspots were detected in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam. In the southern ASEAN region, shower activities helped subdue the overall hotspot activity with a few hotspots detected in parts of Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia.

Weather and Haze Outlook

In the coming days, dry conditions are forecast to persist over much of the Mekong sub-region and an increase in hotspots with localised smoke haze can be expected over areas that experience prolonged dry weather. Elsewhere, showers are forecast over parts of eastern Viet Nam and the Philippines. The prevailing winds in the northern ASEAN region are forecast to remain strong and blow from the northeast or east. For the southern ASEAN region, wet weather is forecast to continue and the overall hotspot activity is likely to remain subdued. The prevailing winds are forecast to blow mainly from the northwest or northeast.

  • All maps are to be used solely for displaying meteorological/geophysical information, and not for any other purpose. All maps are not to scale and for illustrative purpose only.
  • The hotspots depicted on the map are derived from the NOAA satellite and they represent locations with possible fires. Hotspots may go undetected due to cloudy conditions or incomplete satellite pass.
  • At Alert Level 0 and Alert Level 1, the regional haze situation is updated once a day at 0900 UTC. The regional haze situation is updated thrice daily at 0200 UTC, 0500 UTC and 0900 UTC upon activation of Alert Level 2 or Alert Level 3. Updates at 0200 and 0500 UTC display hotspot information from night-time passes of the NOAA-20 satellite. Fewer hotspots were typically detected at night as fire activities usually peak during the day.
  • Reprocessed satellite data will be availed at a later timing. The hotspot information derived from satellite data reprocessed may differ slightly from that received near real-time but reprocessing is necessary for better quality data.
  • The 2500 ft winds (depicted by arrows) are model analysis winds.

Seasonal Forecast for December-January-February 2021-2022

Summary of Outlook

The Southwest Monsoon had transitioned into the inter-monsoon period from the second half of October 2021. Climatologically, inter-monsoon conditions are likely to prevail over the ASEAN region in November before Northeast Monsoon conditions develop in December. During the inter-monsoon period, the prevailing winds are forecast to be generally light and variable in direction. With the monsoon rain band located close to the equator, an increase in rainfall over the equatorial ASEAN region can also be expected.

 

For the December 2021 to February 2022 period, there is an increased chance of near- to above-normal rainfall over much of the Maritime Continent, and a mix of below- to above-normal rainfall over Mainland Southeast Asia. La Niña conditions are present. Models are predicting weak to moderate La Niña conditions until March-April, after which the conditions are predicted to weaken. The negative IOD event has ended and is expected to be neutral for the coming months. Warmer-than-usual temperature is expected for much of the Maritime Continent and Myanmar during DJF 2021-2022..

 

The dry season over the southern ASEAN region had ended in mid-October 2021 and the overall hotspot activity in the region is likely to remain subdued till the end of 2021. Persistent dry conditions which typically occur during the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon from late January to February are likely to contribute to an increase in hotspot activity in parts of the southern ASEAN region and increase the risk of smoke plumes development. In the northern ASEAN region, the traditional dry season typically sets in at the end of the year. While there is an increased chance of above-normal rainfall over some parts of the northern ASEAN region, hotspot and smoke haze activity can still be expected to progressively intensify over the fire-prone areas in the Mekong sub-region, with an increased likelihood of transboundary haze occurrence during this period.

 

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ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

17th ASEAN COF

Related Website

ASEAN Haze Online

Recent Updates

1

Dec

Seasonal Forecast for December-January-February 2021-2022
The Southwest Monsoon had transitioned into the inter-monsoon period from the second half of October 2021. Climatologically, inter-monsoon conditions are likely to prevail over the ASEAN region in November before Northeast Monsoon conditions develop in December. During the inter-monsoon period, the prevailing winds are forecast to be generally light and variable in direction. With the monsoon rain band located close to the equator, an increase in rainfall over the equatorial ASEAN region can also be expected…
More detail

1

Dec

Seventeenth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-17)
The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale. The forum’s outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles …
More detail

26

Nov

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (29 November – 12 December 2021)
Wetter conditions are expected over southern Mainland Southeast Asia, parts of the Philippines, and the southeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (29 November – 5 December). These wetter conditions are likely to persist over …
More detail