Regional Haze Situation

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Latest Weather and Haze Situation

The weather continued to be dry and cloudy over much of the northern ASEAN region today while rainy weather prevailed over most of the southern ASEAN region except Peninsular Malaysia where drier conditions were observed. Over the Mekong sub-region, scattered hotspots were detected in Cambodia, while isolated hotspots were detected elsewhere in the sub-region. Localised smoke plumes were observed to emanate from clusters of hotspots detected in eastern Cambodia. Slight smoke plumes were also observed in parts of central Myanmar.

Weather and Haze Outlook

With dry conditions forecast to continue over most of the northern ASEAN region in the next few days, hotspots and localised smoke plumes can be expected in the fire-prone areas of the Mekong sub-region. For the southern ASEAN region, rainy weather is forecast over many areas except Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore. Over areas north of the equator, northeasterly or easterly winds are forecast. Over areas south of the equator, the prevailing winds are likely to blow from the west or northwest.

  • All maps are to be used solely for displaying meteorological/geophysical information, and not for any other purpose. All maps are not to scale and for illustrative purpose only.
  • The hotspots depicted on the map are derived from the NOAA satellite and they represent locations with possible fires. Hotspots may go undetected due to cloudy conditions or incomplete satellite pass.
  • At Alert Level 0 and Alert Level 1, the regional haze situation is updated once a day at 0900 UTC. The regional haze situation is updated thrice daily at 0200 UTC, 0500 UTC and 0900 UTC upon activation of Alert Level 2 or Alert Level 3. Updates at 0200 and 0500 UTC display hotspot information from night-time passes of the NOAA-20 satellite. Fewer hotspots were typically detected at night as fire activities usually peak during the day.
  • Reprocessed satellite data will be availed at a later timing. The hotspot information derived from satellite data reprocessed may differ slightly from that received near real-time but reprocessing is necessary for better quality data.
  • The 2500 ft winds (depicted by arrows) are model analysis winds.

Seasonal Forecast for January-February-March 2022

Summary of Outlook

The Northeast Monsoon was established over most parts of the ASEAN region in December 2021 and it is expected to persist till late March 2022, when inter-monsoon conditions typically start developing. Climatologically, the northern ASEAN region experiences its traditional dry season during the period with the prevailing low-level winds blowing from the northeast or east. As the monsoon rain band progresses south of the Equator, wet conditions typically prevail over the southern ASEAN region during the beginning of the outlook period before becoming drier and occasionally windy as the region enters the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon from late January to early March. The prevailing low-level winds over the southern ASEAN region are expected to blow from the north or northwest.

 

For the January to March 2022 period, there is an increased chance of above-normal rainfall over eastern parts of the Maritime Continent and the Malay Peninsula. La Niña conditions are present. Models are predicting weak to moderate La Niña conditions until March-April 2022, after which the conditions are predicted to return to neutral during April-June 2022. Warmer-than-usual temperature is expected for much of the Maritime Continent (except the Malay Peninsula where near-normal temperature is predicted) and Myanmar during JFM 2022.

 

As it is the traditional dry season over the northern ASEAN region, the hotspot and smoke haze situation can be expected to intensify over the Mekong sub-region, especially over the northern parts of Myanmar as well as the northern and central parts of the sub-region where below-normal rainfall is forecast. Increased likelihood of transboundary haze occurrence can also be expected over the sub-region during the outlook period. In the southern ASEAN region, the overall hotspot activities are expected to remain subdued due to the wet conditions. However, isolated hotspots with localised smoke plume can occur occasionally as the region enters the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon between late January and early March.

 

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ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

17th ASEAN COF

Related Website

ASEAN Haze Online

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