Regional Haze Situation

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Latest Weather and Haze Situation

Showers fell over most parts of the ASEAN region today. The overall hotspot activity in the ASEAN region was subdued, with only a few hotspots detected in Java, the Lesser Sunda Islands, Peninsular Malaysia, and Thailand.

Weather and Haze Outlook

In the coming days, rainy weather is expected to prevail over most parts of the ASEAN region, subduing the overall hotspot activity. The prevailing winds over the Mekong sub-region are expected to blow mainly from the northeast. Elsewhere over the ASEAN region, the prevailing winds are forecast to be mainly light and variable in direction.

 

  • All maps are to be used solely for displaying meteorological/geophysical information, and not for any other purpose. All maps are not to scale and for illustrative purpose only.
  • The hotspots depicted on the map are derived from the NOAA satellite and they represent locations with possible fires. Hotspots may go undetected due to cloudy conditions or incomplete satellite pass.
  • At Alert Level 0 and Alert Level 1, the regional haze situation is updated once a day at 0900 UTC. The regional haze situation is updated thrice daily at 0200 UTC, 0500 UTC and 0900 UTC upon activation of Alert Level 2 or Alert Level 3. Updates at 0200 and 0500 UTC display hotspot information from night-time passes of the NOAA-20 satellite. Fewer hotspots were typically detected at night as fire activities usually peak during the day.
  • Reprocessed satellite data will be availed at a later timing. The hotspot information derived from satellite data reprocessed may differ slightly from that received near real-time but reprocessing is necessary for better quality data.
  • The 2500 ft winds (depicted by arrows) are model analysis winds.

Seasonal Forecast for October-November-December 2021

Summary of Outlook

Towards the end of September 2021, the monsoon rain band started to shift southwards towards the Equator. Wetter conditions are expected to progressively set in over the ASEAN region as the transition to Intermonsoon conditions takes place in October. During the October to December period, the prevailing southeasterly or southwesterly winds over the ASEAN region are expected to weaken prior to a change in direction to blow from the northeast or northwest.

 

For the October to December 2021 period, there is an increased chance of above-normal rainfall over much of the ASEAN region, with the highest likelihood over southern and eastern parts of the Maritime Continent. The tropical Pacific has not shown consistent La Niña-like conditions yet, but most models are predicting La Niña-like conditions from October onwards. The negative IOD event is ending, and models predict that the IOD will return to neutral before December 2021. A negative IOD tends to bring above-average rainfall for the southern ASEAN region for this time of the year. Warmer-than-usual temperature is expected for much of the Maritime Continent during OND 2021. During the same period, the northeastern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia are predicted to experience below- to near-normal temperatures, associated with the northeast monsoon surges.

 

While the southern ASEAN region is expected to begin transitioning out of its dry season in the coming weeks, an increase in hotspot activity and localised smoke plumes is still possible during dry periods. However, as above-normal rainfall is forecast for most of the southern ASEAN region in October 2021, widespread severe transboundary haze continues to be unlikely. Hotspot and smoke haze activities in the northern ASEAN region are expected to progressively intensify as the Mekong sub-region’s traditional dry season sets in at the end of the year.

 

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ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

16th ASEAN COF

Related Website

ASEAN Haze Online

Recent Updates

15

Oct

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (18 – 31 October 2021)
Over most of the Maritime Continent, wetter conditions are predicted in the next fortnight (18 – 31 October). The highest likelihood for wetter conditions is for the equatorial region in Week 1 (18 – 24 October), while the highest likelihood is over central and eastern parts of the Maritime Continent …
More detail

13

Oct

Review of Regional Weather for September 2021
During September 2021, there was above-average rainfall recorded over much of the ASEAN region (Figure 1). The exceptions were northern Sumatra and northern Philippines, and also parts of northern Myanmar, Peninsular Malaysia, Borneo, and Papua, which received …
More detail

6

Oct

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) monitoring system
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) monitoring system state is “La Niña Watch”. The 1-month Nino3.4 sea surface temperatures continued to cool in August, with the values nearing La Niña threshold. In September, there have …
More detail