Regional Haze Situation

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Latest Weather and Haze Situation

Dry and cloudy conditions persisted across the Mekong sub-region today, except for a few isolated showers along the southeastern coast. Widespread hotspots were detected in northern and eastern Cambodia, scattered hotspots were detected in Myanmar and Thailand, while isolated hotspots were detected in other parts of the Mekong sub-region. Slight to moderate smoke plumes were observed to emit from clusters of hotspots in northern Thailand, northern and eastern Cambodia, as well as northern Myanmar. Slight smoke plumes were also observed to emit from isolated hotspots in northern Viet Nam, as well as northern and central Lao PDR. Several stations in the northern parts of the Mekong sub-region reported moderate to unhealthy air quality today, but the full extent of the hotspot and smoke haze conditions could not be determined due to thick cloud cover over northern Thailand, northern Lao PDR and Viet Nam.

Weather and Haze Outlook

Continued dry weather conditions are forecast for most parts of the Mekong sub-region, although some showers are likely for central Viet Nam. Wet weather conditions are also expected in other parts of the ASEAN region, with heavy rainfall expected over the eastern coast of Peninsular Malaysia, as well as central and southern parts of the Philippines. There remains a high risk of escalating hotspot activities and transboundary smoke haze for fire-prone areas of the Mekong sub-region. Strong northeasterly to easterly winds over areas north of the Equator are expected to ease in the coming days, while the prevailing winds over areas south of the Equator are likely to continue blowing from the west or northwest.

  • All maps are to be used solely for displaying meteorological/geophysical information, and not for any other purpose. All maps are not to scale and for illustrative purpose only.
  • The hotspots depicted on the map are derived from the NOAA satellite and they represent locations with possible fires. Hotspots may go undetected due to cloudy conditions or incomplete satellite pass.
  • At Alert Level 0 and Alert Level 1, the regional haze situation is updated once a day at 0900 UTC. The regional haze situation is updated more frequently at 0300 UTC and 0900 UTC upon activation of Alert Level 2 or Alert Level 3. Updates at 0300 UTC display hotspot information from night-time passes of the NOAA-20 satellite. Fewer hotspots were typically detected at night as fire activities usually peak during the day.
  • Reprocessed satellite data will be availed at a later timing. The hotspot information derived from satellite data reprocessed may differ slightly from that received near real-time but reprocessing is necessary for better quality data.
  • The 2500 ft winds (depicted by arrows) are model analysis winds.

Seasonal Forecast for January – March 2023

Summary of Outlook

The Northeast Monsoon was established over most parts of the ASEAN region in December 2022. During this period, the monsoon rain band is typically located south of the Equator, with low-level winds blowing mainly from the northeast or northwest over the region. The Northeast Monsoon conditions typically transitions into the inter-monsoon period from late March onwards associated with an increase in shower activities over the northern ASEAN region.

For the January to March 2023 (JFM) period, an increased chance of above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the northern ASEAN region, apart from parts of northern Mainland Southeast Asia where an increase in chance of below-normal rainfall is predicted. La Niña conditions are predicted to weaken in early 2023, and likely to be in ENSO neutral conditions by April 2023. La Niña event tends to bring wetter conditions to much of the ASEAN region. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) returned to neutral during December 2022. Near-normal temperature conditions are predicted for much of the ASEAN region, with parts of eastern Maritime Continent, and Myanmar favoured to experience above-normal temperatures.

In the northern ASEAN region, hotspot and smoke haze activities are expected to intensify as the traditional dry season prevails in January – March 2023, even though above-normal rainfall is forecast over much of the region during this period. There may be an increased chance of transboundary haze events in the Mekong sub-region if dry conditions persist over fire-prone areas. In the southern ASEAN region, some localised development of hotspots and smoke plumes may occur during the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon.

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The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

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Recent Updates

20

Jan

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (23 January – 5 February 2023)
Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the Maritime Continent and coastal parts of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (23 January – 5 February). The highest likelihood of wetter conditions is over …
More details

12

Jan

Review of Regional Weather for December 2022
During December 2022, a mix of below- to above-average rainfall was recorded over the Maritime Continent, while near-average rainfall was recorded over much of Mainland Southeast Asia, except for…
More details

11

Jan

Review of Regional Haze Situation for December 2022
The inter-monsoon conditions gradually made way for the Northeast Monsoon over the ASEAN region in November 2022. The prevailing low-level winds over the northern ASEAN region blew from the northeast to east while the winds …
More details