Regional Haze Situation

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Latest Weather and Haze Situation

It was cloudy and wet over most parts of the northern ASEAN region today, while dry conditions persisted over most of the southern ASEAN region. Isolated hotspots were detected mainly in Sumatra, Kalimantan and Java. No smoke plumes were observed.

Weather and Haze Outlook

The dry weather conditions are forecast to persist over most parts of the southern ASEAN region in the coming days, while showers are expected over northern ASEAN region. Isolated hotspots and smoke plumes may develop in fire-prone areas of the southern ASEAN region during dry periods. The prevailing winds over areas north of the Equator are forecast to be variable in direction under the influence of a circulation west of the Philippines, and are likely to strengthen over the next few days, while those over areas south of the Equator are expected to blow from the southeast.

  • All maps are to be used solely for displaying meteorological/geophysical information, and not for any other purpose. All maps are not to scale and for illustrative purpose only.
  • The hotspots depicted on the map are derived from the NOAA satellite and they represent locations with possible fires. Hotspots may go undetected due to cloudy conditions or incomplete satellite pass.
  • At Alert Level 0 and Alert Level 1, the regional haze situation is updated once a day at 0900 UTC. The regional haze situation is updated thrice daily at 0200 UTC, 0500 UTC and 0900 UTC upon activation of Alert Level 2 or Alert Level 3. Updates at 0200 and 0500 UTC display hotspot information from night-time passes of the NOAA-20 satellite. Fewer hotspots were typically detected at night as fire activities usually peak during the day.
  • Reprocessed satellite data will be availed at a later timing. The hotspot information derived from satellite data reprocessed may differ slightly from that received near real-time but reprocessing is necessary for better quality data.
  • The 2500 ft winds (depicted by arrows) are model analysis winds.

Seasonal Forecast for August-October 2022

Summary of Outlook

The prevailing southwest monsoon conditions are expected to continue in August 2022, as low-level winds over the ASEAN region are typically expected to remain mostly southeasterly or southwesterly. With the monsoon rain band located predominantly over the northern ASEAN region, the southwest monsoon season is climatologically characterised by rainy conditions over the northern ASEAN region and drier weather in the southern ASEAN region.

For the August to October (ASO) 2022 period, an increased chance of above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the southern ASEAN region, with a small increase in chance of below-normal rainfall over parts of the western Maritime Continent. Weak La Niña conditions were present for much of July 2022. From August, some models predict a restrengthening of La Niña conditions while the rest predict a return to ENSO neutral conditions. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to become established by August and remain until the end of the year, with some models predicting the negative IOD to be strong. Warmer-than-normal temperature is predicted for much of the ASEAN region, with the exceptions of below- to near-normal temperatures around Borneo, Java, and southern Sumatra.

Over the southern ASEAN region, the traditional dry season is expected to persist till October 2022. While above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the southern ASEAN region during the August to October 2022 period, isolated to scattered hotspots and smoke plumes can still occur if dry conditions prolong over the fire-prone areas, particularly in parts of northern Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia where below-normal rainfall is forecast. Extended periods of dry weather may also increase the likelihood of transboundary haze in the region. Over the northern ASEAN region, shower activities are expected to persist in August-October 2022, which should help to subdue the overall hotspot and smoke haze situation there.

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ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

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Related Website

ASEAN Haze Online

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5

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Subseasonal Weather Outlook (8 – 21 August 2022)
Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (8 – 21 August). Wetter conditions are also predicted in Week 1 (8 – 14 August) over much of the northern half of Mainland Southeast Asia and the northern Philippines. Drier conditions are predicted …
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1

Aug

Seasonal Forecast for August – October 2022
The prevailing southwest monsoon conditions are expected to continue in August 2022, as low-level winds over the ASEAN region are typically expected to remain mostly southeasterly or southwesterly. With the monsoon rain band located…
More details

22

Jul

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (25 July – 7 August 2022)
Wetter conditions are expected over most of the equatorial ASEAN region in the next fortnight (25 July – 7 August). The highest likelihood of wetter conditions are predicted over the…
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