Regional Haze Situation

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Latest Weather and Haze Situation

Super Typhoon Chanthu tracked northwards and continued to bring heavy showers today over the northern parts of the Philippines. There were also strong winds and heavy showers over central Viet Nam as Tropical Storm Conson approached the region. The influence of both tropical cyclones continued to bring rainfall over most parts of northern ASEAN except for the northern parts of the Mekong sub-region. Isolated hotspots were observed in northern Viet Nam.

In the southern ASEAN region, showers fell over most areas except for the Lesser Sunda Islands. Wet weather conditions continued to help subdue the overall hotspots activity in the region, with only isolated hotspots detected mainly over parts of Kalimantan and southern Sumatra. No smoke haze was observed from satellite imagery.

Weather and Haze Outlook

Super Typhoon Chanthu is forecast to continue tracking northwards while Tropical Storm Conson is expected to make landfall in central Viet Nam on Saturday night. Wet weather conditions are forecast to persist over most parts of the ASEAN region. As such, the overall hotspot activity in the region is likely to remain subdued. The prevailing winds are forecast to be southwesterly or westerly for the northern ASEAN region, while winds over southern ASEAN region are forecast to blow from the east or southeast.

 

  • All maps are to be used solely for displaying meteorological/geophysical information, and not for any other purpose. All maps are not to scale and for illustrative purpose only.
  • The hotspots depicted on the map are derived from the NOAA satellite and they represent locations with possible fires. Hotspots may go undetected due to cloudy conditions or incomplete satellite pass.
  • At Alert Level 0 and Alert Level 1, the regional haze situation is updated once a day at 0900 UTC. The regional haze situation is updated thrice daily at 0200 UTC, 0500 UTC and 0900 UTC upon activation of Alert Level 2 or Alert Level 3. Updates at 0200 and 0500 UTC display hotspot information from night-time passes of the NOAA-20 satellite. Fewer hotspots were typically detected at night as fire activities usually peak during the day.
  • Reprocessed satellite data will be availed at a later timing. The hotspot information derived from satellite data reprocessed may differ slightly from that received near real-time but reprocessing is necessary for better quality data.
  • The 2500 ft winds (depicted by arrows) are model analysis winds.

Seasonal Forecast for September-October-November 2021

Summary of Outlook

In September 2021, the Southwest Monsoon conditions are forecast to persist as the monsoon rain band remains north of the Equator. During this period, the northern and southern ASEAN regions continue to experience their traditional wet and dry season respectively. The Southwest Monsoon conditions are expected to gradually transit into the inter-monsoon period typically in the latter part of October where the equatorial ASEAN region experiences an increase in shower activities. The prevailing winds during the Southwest Monsoon are expected to blow from the southeast or southwest and gradually weaken to become light and variable in direction during the transition into the inter-monsoon period.

For the September to November 2021 period, there is an increased chance of above-normal rainfall over much of the ASEAN region, with the highest likelihood over central and southern parts of the Maritime Continent. There were signs of La Niña-like conditions developing in August, although the prediction for the rest of 2021 is still split between ENSO-neutral and La Niña conditions developing. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in the negative phase, with models forecasting the IOD to return to neutral in November or December 2021. A negative IOD tends to bring above-average rainfall for the southern ASEAN region for this time of the year. Warmer-than-usual temperature is expected for most parts of the ASEAN region during SON 2021.

Despite the traditional dry season over the southern ASEAN region, the likelihood for widespread severe transboundary haze is low due to the expected above-normal rainfall condition over the region. However, isolated hotspots with localised smoke plumes can still occur during dry periods. With the increase in shower activities during the inter-monsoon period, hotspot activities in the region are expected to be suppressed. In the northern ASEAN region, the hotspot activities are expected to remain subdued under the prevailing wet weather conditions during the forecast period.

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