Regional Haze Situation

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Latest Weather and Haze Situation

While cloudy conditions and rain were observed over Myanmar as well as the northern parts of Thailand, Lao PDR and Viet Nam, it was fair and dry over the rest of the Mekong sub-region. Based on the overnight satellite imagery, isolated hotspots were detected mostly in Cambodia, Lao PDR and the southern parts of Viet Nam. From the latest satellite imagery, slight to moderate smoke haze was observed over parts of Lao PDR and the southern parts of Myanmar. The full extent of the hotspot and smoke haze situation over the northern parts of the Mekong sub-region could not be determined due to extensive cloud cover. Moderate to unhealthy air quality levels were observed by most of the air quality stations situated over the northern and eastern parts of the sub-region with a few stations measured very unhealthy air quality level.

In the rest of the ASEAN region, cloudy and isolated showers were observed except for the Philippines where it was mostly fair. Hotspot activity remained suppressed based on satellite surveillance.

Weather and Haze Outlook

Dry conditions are forecast over most parts of the Mekong sub-region except for the northern parts of Myanmar where isolated showers are expected. With the ongoing dry conditions, the hotspot and smoke haze situation, as well as the risk of transboundary haze occurrence, are expected to remain elevated. The prevailing winds over most parts of the sub-region are forecast to blow from the southwest or west.

Elsewhere in the ASEAN region, rainy weather is forecast except for the northern and central parts of the Philippines where drier conditions are expected. The overall hotspot activity is expected to remain suppressed. The prevailing winds are forecast to be light and variable in direction.

  • All maps are to be used solely for displaying meteorological/geophysical information, and not for any other purpose. All maps are not to scale and for illustrative purpose only.
  • The hotspots depicted on the map are derived from the NOAA satellite and they represent locations with possible fires. Hotspots may go undetected due to cloudy conditions or incomplete satellite pass.
  • At Alert Level 0 and Alert Level 1, the regional haze situation is updated once a day at 0900 UTC. The regional haze situation is updated more frequently at 0300 UTC and 0900 UTC upon activation of Alert Level 2 or Alert Level 3. Updates at 0300 UTC display hotspot information from night-time passes of the NOAA-20 satellite. Fewer hotspots were typically detected at night as fire activities usually peak during the day.
  • Reprocessed satellite data will be availed at a later timing. The hotspot information derived from satellite data reprocessed may differ slightly from that received near real-time but reprocessing is necessary for better quality data.
  • The 2500 ft winds (depicted by arrows) are model analysis winds.

Seasonal Forecast for March – May 2023

Summary of Outlook

The current Northeast Monsoon conditions typically persist over the ASEAN region until late March, during which the prevailing low-level winds blow mainly from the northwest or northeast. From late March, the inter-monsoon period usually sets in over the ASEAN region, accompanied by a gradual increase in shower activity over the northern ASEAN region in April and May. Typically, the traditional dry season over the Mekong sub-region lasts until May.

For the March to May 2023 (MAM) period, an increased chance of above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the northern half of the Maritime Continent as well as over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. There is also an increased chance of below-normal rainfall for much of the southern half of the Maritime Continent. La Niña conditions are weakening and likely to be in ENSO neutral conditions in March to April 2023. La Niña event tends to bring wetter conditions to much of the ASEAN region. Above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the central and eastern Maritime Continent and Myanmar, with near-normal temperature predicted elsewhere.

The Mekong sub-region remains in its traditional dry season. The elevated hotspot activity and hazy conditions over much of the sub-region are likely to continue throughout the review period of MAM 2023, although an increased chance of above-normal rainfall and an increase in shower activities with a transition to inter-monsoon conditions from April 2023 may bring some respite. Under the persistent dry weather, widespread moderate to dense smoke haze and transboundary haze occurrences can be expected particularly over the northern, central, and western parts of the Mekong sub-region. For the southern ASEAN region, the overall hotspot activity is expected to be mostly subdued in MAM 2023 under the prevailing rainy weather. Nevertheless, isolated hotspots with occasional smoke plumes can still develop over the fire-prone areas in southern Sumatra and western Borneo during brief periods of drier conditions with the increased chance of below-normal rainfall expected in MAM 2023.

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ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

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ASEAN Haze Online

Recent Updates

17

Mar

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (20 March – 2 April 2023)
Drier conditions are expected over much of the northern ASEAN region in Week 1 (20 – 26 March), in particular over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia and northern Philippines. These drier conditions are predicted to persist over…
More details

16

Mar

Review of Regional Weather for February 2023
During February 2023, a mix of below- to above-average rainfall was recorded over the Maritime Continent. The northern half of the Maritime Continent received predominantly near- to above-average rainfall, and the southern half received predominantly…
More details

8

Mar

Review of Regional Haze Situation for February 2023
The ASEAN region continued to experience Northeast Monsoon conditions in February 2023. Over areas north of the equator, the prevailing winds blew mainly from the northeast even though the winds were mostly light and variable in direction over…
More details