Regional Haze Situation

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Latest Weather and Haze Situation

Isolated showers and cloudy conditions were observed in the ASEAN region today, with the exception of Sumatra and the Lesser Sunda Islands where drier conditions prevailed. Few to isolated hotspots were detected in Myanmar, Thailand, Viet Nam, Peninsula Malaysia, Sumatra and West Kalimantan. A slight localised smoke plume was observed to emanate from a hotspot detected in the northwestern parts of Sumatra.

Weather and Haze Outlook

Over the next few days, isolated to scattered showers are forecast to continue over most parts of the ASEAN region, with the exception of drier conditions forecast over parts of Borneo, Sumatra and the Lesser Sunda Islands. Isolated hotspots and localised smoke plumes may develop where drier conditions continue to prevail. Over the northern ASEAN region, prevailing winds are expected to be light and variable in direction, with the exception of southern Thailand and the Philippines where prevailing winds are expected to blow mainly from the southwest to west. Over the southern ASEAN region, prevailing winds are expected to blow mainly from the southeast to southwest.

  • All maps are to be used solely for displaying meteorological/geophysical information, and not for any other purpose. All maps are not to scale and for illustrative purpose only.
  • The hotspots depicted on the map are derived from the NOAA satellite and they represent locations with possible fires. Hotspots may go undetected due to cloudy conditions or incomplete satellite pass.
  • At Alert Level 0 and Alert Level 1, the regional haze situation is updated once a day at 0900 UTC. The regional haze situation is updated more frequently at 0300 UTC and 0900 UTC upon activation of Alert Level 2 or Alert Level 3. Updates at 0300 UTC display hotspot information from night-time passes of the NOAA-20 satellite. Fewer hotspots were typically detected at night as fire activities usually peak during the day.
  • Reprocessed satellite data will be availed at a later timing. The hotspot information derived from satellite data reprocessed may differ slightly from that received near real-time but reprocessing is necessary for better quality data.
  • The 2500 ft winds (depicted by arrows) are model analysis winds.

Seasonal Forecast for May – July 2026

Summary of Outlook

The inter-monsoon conditions typically persist over the ASEAN region during May, characterized by prevailing winds that are light and variable in direction in most areas of the region. While scattered to widespread rainfall is typical during this period, brief dry spells may still occur in various parts of the region. From late May onwards, the Southwest Monsoon usually begins to establish itself, as the predominant winds turn to blow from the southeast or southwest. During this period, the traditional dry season for the southern ASEAN region gradually sets in as the monsoon rainband shifts further northwards.

For May 2026, below- to near-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the ASEAN region, apart from over parts of the western and central equatorial region where near- to above-normal rainfall is predicted. Extending to May – July (MJJ) 2026, below-normal rainfall is predicted for the southern ASEAN region. Above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the ASEAN region for May and MJJ 2026. ENSO-neutral conditions are predicted for May 2026, with either ENSO-neutral continuing or El Niño conditions developing in June-July 2026. El Niño conditions tend to lead to an increased chance of below-normal rainfall for much of the southern ASEAN region during June – July.

Even though below- to near-normal rainfall is expected over most of the northern ASEAN region, the return of shower activities at the start of the forecast period should help to gradually reduce the hotspot and smoke haze activities and the risk of transboundary haze occurrence across the Mekong sub-region. Over the southern ASEAN region, an increase in hotspot activity with smoke plumes can be expected as the traditional dry season sets in around the middle of the forecast period, especially over areas where below-normal rainfall is predicted. There is a risk of transboundary smoke haze occurrence over areas experiencing prolonged dry conditions during June and July as the prevailing winds blow from the southeast or southwest. The situation could intensify if El Niño develops.

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The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

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