Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 – 14 May 2023)

Issued: 28 April 2023
First forecast week: 1 May 2023 – 7 May 2023
Second forecast week: 8 May 2023 – 14 May 2023


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


In Week 1 (1 – 7 May), drier conditions are predicted over much of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, as well as northern parts of the Philippines. Also in Week 1, wetter conditions are predicted over much of the Maritime Continent.

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of the eastern half of the Maritime Continent during the next fortnight (1 – 14 May). Warmer than usual temperature is also predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (1 – 7 May).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) at the end of April. Most models predict an MJO signal to continue propagating eastwards reaching the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) in Week 2 (8 – 14 May).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.