Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 – 14 November 2021)

Issued 29 October 2021
First forecast week: 1 November – 7 November
Second forecast week: 8 November – 14 November


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


Over most of the southern ASEAN region, wetter conditions are predicted in the next fortnight (1 – 14 November). There is also an increased chance of wetter conditions in the region around 10°N (southern parts of Thailand, Cambodia, and Viet Nam), although with a lower likelihood than for the southern ASEAN region.

In Week 1 (1 – 7 November), wetter conditions are predicted over parts of northern Mainland Southeast Asia (parts of Myanmar and northern Lao PDR). Also in Week 1, drier conditions are predicted over eastern Mainland Southeast Asia and northern Philippines.

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of the northern ASEAN region in Week 1 (1 – 7 November). These warmer conditions are expected to ease in Week 2 (8 – 14 November), apart from over Myanmar and northern Philippines.

No clear MJO signal was present at the end of October based on the RMM Index.
Most models predict no clear MJO signal for the start of the forecast period, although some models suggest an MJO signal to develop over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) in Week 1 and then propagate eastwards over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) in Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.