Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 – 15 February 2020)

Issued 31 January 2020
Valid for weeks 1 and 2: 1 – 15 February 2020


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


In the first fortnight of February 2020, drier conditions are expected over a broad region covering Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, northern parts of Borneo, and the Philippines. The drier conditions are expected to ease in the west in Week 2. There is an increased chance of wetter conditions over the southeastern part of the Maritime Continent. However, there is less confidence in the spatial extent and intensity of the wetter conditions.

For temperature, warmer conditions are expected over much of the Maritime Continent in the first fortnight. Colder conditions may occur in Week 1 over northeastern parts of the northern ASEAN region.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was in Phase 7 towards the end of January 2020 and has dissipated. There is no consistent signal in the dynamical models for an MJO to develop in the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.