Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 – 15 June 2020)
Issued 28 May 2020
Valid for weeks 1 and 2: 1 – 15 June 2020
Wetter conditions are expected over most parts of the Maritime Continent in the first fortnight of June 2020. However, the wetter conditions may ease in the western Maritime Continent in Week 2.
Over Mainland Southeast Asia, particularly over parts of Myanmar and Lao PDR, drier conditions are expected in the first week of June. Drier conditions are also expected over northern and central parts of the Philippines over the first two weeks in June. The drier conditions are associated with weaker-than-normal Southwest Monsoon winds during the fortnight.
Warmer conditions are expected over most parts of Mainland Southeast Asia and northern and central Philippines, especially in Week 1. Over the Maritime Continent, a higher likelihood of warmer conditions is expected around the Java region.
A weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently present over the Western Pacific. A number of models predict the MJO to continue propagating to the Western Hemisphere and Africa in the first week of June 2020, and possibly as far as the Indian Ocean in the week after.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.