Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 – 15 May 2020)

Issued 29 April 2020
Valid for weeks 1 and 2: 1 – 15 May 2020


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

For the first fortnight of May 2020, drier conditions are expected to persist over most of northern Southeast Asia. However, for Myanmar, drier conditions are expected only in Week 2.

There is an increased chance of wetter conditions over the western Maritime Continent and southern parts of the eastern Maritime Continent associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity. The wetter conditions in the western Maritime Continent are expected to ease by Week 2.

For most of Southeast Asia, warmer conditions are expected throughout the first two weeks of May, with the warmest anomalies over parts of Cambodia, Laos and Viet Nam. Colder conditions are likely over northern and western Myanmar in Week 1.

An MJO is currently present over the eastern Indian Ocean. Some models predict the MJO to decay in Week 1 as it enters the Maritime Continent, while other models indicate the MJO may continue propagating through the region. If the MJO continues to propagate, this would increase the probability of wetter conditions in the eastern Maritime Continent.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.