Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 Jan – 15 Jan 2019)

Issued 2 Jan 2019
valid for weeks 1 and 2: 1 Jan – 15 Jan


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

In the first week of the fortnight, a northeast monsoon surge is expected to bring wetter conditions over the South China Sea and over coastal Thailand and Viet Nam. Elsewhere in the Mekong sub-region, cooler conditions can be expected. The stronger monsoonal winds are likely to bring wetter weather to areas around the Java Sea as well. Conversely drier conditions are expected over the Philippines.

By week 2, the wetter conditions over the South China Sea are likely to spread southward to affect the north-eastern coast of Peninsular Malaysia and southern Thailand. Areas around the Java Sea are likely to become drier during the week.

The MJO is currently active in the western Pacific Ocean and is expected to continue propagating eastward. However, the strength and speed of the MJO are uncertain.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.