Subseasonal Weather Outlook (13 May – 26 May 2024)

Issued: 8 May 2024
First forecast week: 13 – 19 May 2024
Second forecast week: 20 – 26 May 2024


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (13 – 26 May). Drier conditions are also predicted over the northeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (13 – 19 May).

Wetter conditions are predicted over most of the equatorial region in Week 1 (13 – 19 May). These wetter conditions are predicted to persist over the eastern half of this region in Week 2 (20 – 26 May).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted to persist over most of the Maritime Continent and parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (13 – 26 May).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) in the first week of May based on the RMM index. Most models predict this signal to become inactive by the start of the forecast period. In Week 1, some models predict an MJO signal to develop over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) or the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.