Subseasonal Weather Outlook (14 – 27 November 2022)

Issued: 11 November 2022
First forecast week: 14 November – 20 November
Second forecast week: 21 November – 27 November


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the southern and eastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (14 – 27 November). Wetter conditions are also predicted over the southern half of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (14 – 20 November), easing in Week 2 (21 – 27 November).

Drier conditions are predicted in Week 2 (21 – 27 November) over the western Maritime Continent and some parts of the central Maritime Continent.

Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (14 – 27 November).

In mid-November, no discernible Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present based on the RMM index. While some models predict an MJO activity over the eastern Maritime Continent and the Western Pacific (Phases 5 and 6) during the forecast period, others predict no significant MJO activity.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.