Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16- 29 February 2020)

Issued 14 February 2020
Valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 – 29 February 2020


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


For the second fortnight of February 2020, there is an increased chance of wetter conditions over most of the southern Maritime Continent. These conditions are expected to ease gradually in Week 4.

Drier conditions are expected over northern Sumatra and western coastal Peninsular Malaysia. Drier conditions are also expected over northern parts of Borneo and southern parts of the Philippines.

For temperature, warmer conditions are expected over much of the Maritime Continent and parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 4. Colder conditions may occur in Week 3 over northeastern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia.

There are signs of an Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) emerging in Maritime Continent in the second week of February. However most models predict this MJO to weaken during the start of the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.