Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 29 May 2022)

Issued: 13 May 2022
First forecast week: 16 May – 22 May
Second forecast week: 23 May – 29 May


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


Wetter conditions are expected over much of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (16 – 29 May). The highest likelihood of wetter conditions is over parts of Myanmar and Thailand in Week 1 (16 – 22 May). Wetter conditions are also expected over much of the northern half of the Philippines in Week 1.

Drier conditions are expected to develop over much of the equatorial region in the next fortnight (16 – 29 May). In Week 1 (16 – 22 May), drier conditions are expected in the western Maritime Continent and easternmost part of the equatorial region. In Week 2 (23 – 29 May), these drier conditions are predicted to extend to cover most of the equatorial region.

Cooler temperatures than usual are expected over most of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (16 May – 29 May) with the highest likelihood over northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia.

Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over the western half of the equatorial region over the next fortnight (16 May – 29 May).

A weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) in the beginning of May. Models predict the MJO signal to be over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) at the start of forecast period. This signal is predicted to decay over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phase 8) during Week 1.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.