Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 29 October 2023)
Issued: 13 October 2023
First forecast week: 16 October – 22 October 2023
Second forecast week: 23 October – 29 October 2023
Drier conditions are predicted over most of the southwestern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (16 – 22 October). These drier conditions are predicted to extend eastwards to cover much of the Maritime Continent in Week 2 (23 – 29 October).
Wetter conditions are predicted over most of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (16 – 22 October).
For temperature, warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (16 – 29 October).
In the second week of October, a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phase 1) based on the RMM index. Most models predict the MJO signal to decay with no significant activity during the forecast period.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.