Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 31 January 2020)

Issued 16 January 2020
Valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 – 31 January 2020


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


In the second fortnight of January 2020, most areas in the ASEAN region, north of the Equator can expect drier-than-usual conditions, except for the western half of the Mekong sub-region where near average rainfall conditions may be expected. The drier conditions could partly be due to the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the fortnight from phase 6 to phases 7 – 8. These MJO phases typically bring drier conditions over the Southeast Asia region.

During the fortnight, most parts of the ASEAN region along and north of the Equator can expect warmer-than-usual conditions. For areas south of the Equator, warmer conditions may develop in Week 4 over southern Sumatra, Java and Lesser Sunda Islands.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.