Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 31 July 2020)

Issued 13 July 2020
Valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 – 31 July 2020


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


In the second fortnight of July 2020, wetter conditions are expected over much of the equatorial region of Southeast Asia. While the likelihood of these wetter conditions is similar for both weeks in the central and eastern equatorial region (Borneo, eastern Indonesia), there is some difference in the likelihood in the western equatorial region. In Week 3, wetter conditions are more likely for Sumatra and the southern Malay Peninsula, while in Week 4, wetter conditions are more likely for southern Thailand and southern Myanmar.

For northern Southeast Asia, drier conditions are expected over much of this region in Week 3, and becoming confined to western Myanmar in Week 4. During Week 3, the largest dry anomalies are expected over Myanmar, Lao PDR, and the northern Philippines.

Warmer conditions are expected over northern Southeast Asia, particularly in Week 3.

While there are some signs of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal in the western Indian Ocean, the models are inconsistent in their predictions for the signal to continue during the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.