Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 May – 31 May 2019)

Issued 15 May 2019
Valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 May – 31 May


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

For the second half of May, drier-than-usual conditions are expected to persist in Myanmar, the southern Philippines, as well as northern and central Thailand. By the second week of the fortnight, the drier conditions are expected to extend over most parts of the northern ASEAN region.

In the southern ASEAN region, wetter-than-usual conditions are expected to develop over parts of Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and West Kalimantan towards the middle of the fortnight, and subsequently ease in the last week of May. The wetter conditions are associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is predicted to propagate eastwards through Phase 7 and Phase 8, and into Phase 1.

Most parts of the northern ASEAN region are expected to experience warmer-than-average conditions in the coming fortnight.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.