Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 31 May 2020)

Issued 15 May 2020
Valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 – 31 May 2020


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


For the second fortnight of May 2020, drier conditions are expected over western Mainland Southeast Asia (parts of Myanmar and Thailand), easing over Thailand and southern Myanmar in Week 4.

For most of the southern parts of Southeast Asia, there is an increased chance of wetter conditions, particularly in Week 3.

Warmer conditions are expected over most of Mainland Southeast Asia. Much of the Maritime Continent also has an increased chance of warmer conditions, except for parts of Peninsular Malaysia, Borneo and northern Philippines.

There was no clear Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal in the second week of May. While models predict an MJO to emerge over the Indian Ocean in Week 3, most models suggest the signal will be short-lived.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.