Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 Dec – 31 Dec 2018)

Issued 14 Dec 2018
valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 Dec – 31 Dec

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 

For the first week of the fortnight, wetter-than-average conditions are forecast over southern Thailand and along coastal Myanmar due to possible tropical cyclone formation over the Bay of Bengal.

Meanwhile, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to propagate eastwards from Phase 3 to Phase 5 and possibly further in the coming fortnight. The MJO, together with a possible Northeast Monsoon surge, is expected to bring above-average rainfall over southern Viet Nam, Cambodia, southern Thailand and northern Peninsular Malaysia in the last week of December.

In the southern ASEAN region, drier-than-average conditions are likely over Java and its surrounding vicinity in the second half of the month.

Above-average temperatures are expected in parts of Thailand, northern Lao PDR, northern Viet Nam and western Cambodia for the second half of December. Elsewhere, temperatures are likely to be near-average.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 Dec – 31 Dec 2018)

Issued 14 Dec 2018
valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 Dec – 31 Dec

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 

For the first week of the fortnight, wetter-than-average conditions are forecast over southern Thailand and along coastal Myanmar due to possible tropical cyclone formation over the Bay of Bengal.

Meanwhile, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to propagate eastwards from Phase 3 to Phase 5 and possibly further in the coming fortnight. The MJO, together with a possible Northeast Monsoon surge, is expected to bring above-average rainfall over southern Viet Nam, Cambodia, southern Thailand and northern Peninsular Malaysia in the last week of December.

In the southern ASEAN region, drier-than-average conditions are likely over Java and its surrounding vicinity in the second half of the month.

Above-average temperatures are expected in parts of Thailand, northern Lao PDR, northern Viet Nam and western Cambodia for the second half of December. Elsewhere, temperatures are likely to be near-average.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.