Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 Mar – 31 Mar 2019)

Issued 15 Mar 2019
valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 Mar – 31 Mar


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

In the coming fortnight, drier-than-average conditions are expected to continue over the Philippines and the equatorial region around the South China Sea.

Wetter-than-average conditions are expected to continue over the southern Maritime Continent during Week 3 but an easing of conditions are expected in in Week 4.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that has been active in Phase 4 since the second week of March 2019 is weakening and is expected to weaken further in the coming fortnight. This could bring wet weather to the southern parts of the Maritime Continent, in particular over the Java and Banda Sea areas in Week 3.

The prevailing dry and warm conditions over the Southeast Asia region can be attributed to the mass of dry air from a high pressure system in the Pacific Ocean that has extended over the Southeast Asia region. The dry mass of air is forecast to persist in Week 3, and is expected to bring warmer-than-average temperatures over most parts of the Mekong sub-region, Peninsular Malaysia and northern Sumatra.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.