Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 Nov – 30 Nov 2018)

Issued 14 Nov 2018
valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 Nov – 30 Nov


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook



Climatologically, the northern ASEAN region experiences drier weather in the second half of November compared to the southern ASEAN region, where there would typically be more shower activities during this period. For the coming fortnight, drier-than-average conditions are expected over parts of Malaysia, Sumatra and Kalimantan. This is particularly so in the first week of the fortnight when the MJO is forecast to propagate eastwards through Phases 5 and 6. However, models’ predictions of the MJO development differ, with some models forecasting a weakening of the MJO during this period.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected for the Mekong sub-region except for Myanmar. Near normal temperatures are predicted elsewhere.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.