Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Drier conditions are predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent and southern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (18 – 24 March). Drier conditions are also predicted over much of the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (18 – 31 March).

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the equatorial region in Week 2 (25 – 31 March).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (18 – 31 March). Elsewhere, warmer than usual temperature is predicted over southern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (18 – 24 March) and extending to parts of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (25 – 31 March).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was observed over the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) towards the middle of March based on the RMM index. Models predict the signal to reach the Western Pacific (Phase 6) by the start of the forecast period. Thereafter, most models predict the MJO signal to gradually decay as it propagates eastwards, becoming indiscernible over the Western Hemisphere (Phase 8) by Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Drier conditions are predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent and southern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (18 – 24 March). Drier conditions are also predicted over much of the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (18 – 31 March).

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the equatorial region in Week 2 (25 – 31 March).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (18 – 31 March). Elsewhere, warmer than usual temperature is predicted over southern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (18 – 24 March) and extending to parts of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (25 – 31 March).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was observed over the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) towards the middle of March based on the RMM index. Models predict the signal to reach the Western Pacific (Phase 6) by the start of the forecast period. Thereafter, most models predict the MJO signal to gradually decay as it propagates eastwards, becoming indiscernible over the Western Hemisphere (Phase 8) by Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.