Subseasonal Weather Outlook (19 February – 3 March 2024)

Issued: 16 February 2024
First forecast week: 19 – 25 February 2024
Second forecast week: 26 February – 3 March 2024


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Drier conditions are predicted over the northern half of the Maritime Continent and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (19 February – 3 March).

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the central and southeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (19 February – 3 March), with higher likelihood over the southeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (19 – 25 February).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent as well as southern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (19 – 25 February). The warmer than usual temperature is predicted to persist over much of the Maritime Continent in Week 2 (26 February – 3 March).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) in the middle of February based on the RMM index. Most models predict the MJO signal to become indiscernible in Week 1 and then remain inactive for the rest of the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.