Subseasonal Weather Outlook (19 October – 1 November 2020)
Issued 16 October 2020
First forecast week: 19 October – 25 October
Second forecast week: 26 October – 1 November
Wetter conditions are predicted over eastern Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines for the next two weeks (19 October – 1 November), although the location and intensity of these wetter conditions will depend on tropical cyclone evolution. Wetter conditions are also predicted over parts of Java and southern Sumatra next week (19 – 25 October).
In general, drier conditions are predicted over the western Maritime Continent next week (19 – 25 October), gradually easing in the second week (26 October – 1 November). Parts of this region may however, experience near-normal conditions, particularly along eastern coasts of Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula.
Warmer temperatures are predicted over much of the equatorial region and northern Myanmar in the next fortnight (19 October – 1 November). Cooler temperatures than usual for this time of year are predicted over parts of Mainland Southeast Asia (Viet Nam, Lao PDR, northern Thailand and Cambodia).
A moderate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal appears to be developing over the eastern Maritime Continent. Most models predict the MJO to propagate eastwards over the Pacific, although weakening slightly due in part to the La Niña conditions present.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.