Subseasonal Weather Outlook (2 – 15 May 2022)

Issued: 29 April 2022
First forecast week: 2 May – 8 May
Second forecast week: 9 May – 15 May


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


Wetter conditions are expected over the northwestern part of the ASEAN region in Week 1 (2 May – 8 May), including Myanmar, southern Mainland Southeast Asia, and parts of the western Maritime Continent. These wetter conditions are predicted to ease in Week 2 (9 May – 15 May), apart from over most of Myanmar.

Cooler temperatures than usual are expected over most of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (2 May – 8 May). The highest likelihood for cooler temperatures is over eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. These cooler temperatures are predicted to ease in Week 2 (9 May – 15 May), except for parts of Myanmar, in line with the wetter conditions predicted.

Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over the equatorial region in Week 2 (9 May – 15 May).

No discernible Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present at the end of April. Models predict the MJO signal to remain weak or indiscernible for the next fortnight.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.