Subseasonal Weather Outlook (2 – 15 October 2023)
Issued: 29 September 2023
First forecast week: 2 October – 8 October 2023
Second forecast week: 9 October – 15 October 2023
Drier conditions are predicted over much of the Maritime Continent in Week 1 (2 – 8 October). These drier conditions are predicted to persist in Week 2 (9 – 15 October), although with lower likelihood over Borneo and the southern Philippines.
Wetter conditions are predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (9 – 15 October).
For temperature over Mainland Southeast Asia, warmer than usual temperature is predicted in Week 1 (2 – 8 October). In Week 2 (9 – 15 October), warmer than usual temperature is predicted to persist over the southeastern part of the region. For the Maritime Continent, warmer than usual temperature is also predicted over most of the region in the next fortnight (2 – 15 October).
In the second half of September, there was no clear Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal. Most models predict no significant MJO signal during the forecast period.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.