Subseasonal Weather Outlook (21 August – 3 September 2023)
Issued: 18 August 2023
First forecast week: 21 August – 27 August 2023
Second forecast week: 28 August – 3 September 2023
Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines in the next fortnight (21 August – 3 September).
Drier conditions are predicted over much of the central Maritime Continent in Week 1 (21 – 27 August). These drier conditions are predicted to extend eastward covering much of the southern half of the Maritime Continent in Week 2 (28 August – 3 September).
Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (21 August – 3 September), in line with the predicted drier conditions. Warmer than usual temperature is also predicted over much of northern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight.
No coherent Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present during the first half of August. During the forecast period, models predict no strong MJO signal, although a few models predict a weak MJO signal to develop over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) and then propagate eastwards.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.