Subseasonal Weather Outlook (21 February – 6 March 2022)

Issued: 18 February 2022
First forecast week: 21 February – 27 February
Second forecast week: 28 February – 6 March


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


Wetter conditions are expected in the next fortnight (21 February – 6 March) for much of the region encompassing the Malay Peninsula, coastal parts of southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and northeast Borneo. The highest likelihood of wetter conditions is over the Malay Peninsula in Week 1 (21 – 27 February) and over the Philippines in Week 2 (28 February – 6 March).

Wetter conditions are also expected in Week 1 (21 – 27 February) over southeastern parts of the Maritime Continent.

Cooler than usual conditions are expected for Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (21– 27 February), easing in Week 2 (28 February – 6 March).

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phase 3) in the middle of February based on the RMM Index. Most models predict the MJO signal to propagate eastwards through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) during the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.