Subseasonal Weather Outlook (21 March – 3 April 2022)
Issued: 18 March 2022
First forecast week: 21 March – 27 March
Second forecast week: 28 March – 3 April
Wetter conditions are expected over much of western and central Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (21 March – 3 April). In Week 1 (21 – 27 March), the highest probability of wetter conditions is over Myanmar, Thailand and Lao PDR. In Week 2 (28 March – 3 April), these wetter conditions are expected to ease.
Elsewhere, wetter conditions are expected over southeastern parts of the Maritime Continent in Week 1 (21 – 27 March). In Week 2 (28 March – 3 April), wetter conditions are expected over the Philippines and extending westwards to the coastal areas of southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia.
Conversely, drier conditions than usual are expected to develop over Sumatra in Week 1 (21 – 27 March) and extend eastwards over much of Borneo in Week 2 (28 March – 3 April).
Warmer conditions than usual are expected over much of the western and central equatorial region in the next fortnight (21 March – 3 April), in line with the drier conditions predicted. Cooler temperatures than usual are expected over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (28 March – 3 April).
A moderate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) in the middle of March. Most models predict this MJO signal to continue propagating eastwards and reaching the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) during the first week of the forecast period. Some models predict this signal to continue propagating through the Maritime Continent (Phase 5) and Western Pacific (Phase 6) in Week 2, while others predict the signal to decay.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.