Subseasonal Weather Outlook (22 March – 4 April 2021)

Issued 19 March 2021
First forecast week: 22 March – 28 March
Second forecast week: 29 March – 4 April


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


Wetter conditions are expected over the eastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (22 March – 4 April). In Week 1 (22 – 28 March), wetter conditions are also expected over northern and central parts of Sumatra, the Malay Peninsula and western Borneo. Also in Week 1, drier conditions are expected over eastern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia.

Warmer conditions than usual are expected over most of Mainland Southeast Asia, in particular for Myanmar in Week 1 (22 – 28 March) and spreading elsewhere in Week 2 (29 March – 4 April). Cooler temperatures than usual are expected over northern parts of Sumatra, the Malay Peninsula and western Borneo in Week 1.

A moderate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phase 1). Models predict this MJO to continue propagating eastwards over the Indian Ocean (phases 2 and 3), although weakening slightly as it approaches the Maritime Continent (phases 4 and 5) at the end of March.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.