Subseasonal Weather Outlook (23 January – 5 February 2023)

Issued: 20 January 2023
First forecast week: 23 January 2023 – 29 January 2023
Second forecast week: 30 January 2023 – 5 February 2023


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the Maritime Continent and coastal parts of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (23 January – 5 February). The highest likelihood of wetter conditions is over the region between 0° and 10°N, including the Malay Peninsula, northern Borneo, and the southern Philippines, in Week 1 (23 – 29 January).

Cooler than usual temperature is predicted over much of the southern half of the ASEAN region in Week 1 (23 – 29 January), generally in line with the predicted wetter conditions.

No clear Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present during the third week of January. Some models predict an MJO signal to develop and propagate eastward over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) during the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.