Subseasonal Weather Outlook (24 January – 6 February 2022)

Issued 21 January 2022
First forecast week: 24 January – 30 January
Second forecast week: 31 January – 6 February


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


In Week 1 (24 – 30 January), drier conditions are predicted over much of the western and southern Maritime Continent. Also in Week 1, wetter conditions are predicted over northeastern parts of the Maritime Continent (in particular for the Philippines).

For temperature, warmer than usual conditions are predicted for much of the central part of Southeast Asia (central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, the western half of the Maritime Continent) and the northern Philippines in Week 1 (24 – 30 January). In Week 2 (31 January – 6 February), these warmer conditions are expected to ease, apart from over the coastal regions of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia.

Cooler than usual conditions are predicted for northwestern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (24 January – 6 February).

By the middle of January, the previous Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal had decayed. Most models predict no significant MJO activity during the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.