Subseasonal Weather Outlook (25 January – 7 February 2021)

Issued 22 January 2021
First forecast week: 25 January – 31 January
Second forecast week: 1 February – 7 February


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


For rainfall in Week 1 (25 – 31 January 2021), wetter conditions are predicted over much of the southern part of the ASEAN region. These wetter conditions are expected to become confined mainly to the region around Java in Week 2 (1 – 7 February 2021). There is also an increased chance of wetter conditions in Week 1 for southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia as well as the northern Philippines.

For temperature, there is an increased chance of cooler conditions over the central part of the Maritime Continent, as well as southern Thailand, in Week 1 (25 – 31 January 2021). These cooler temperatures are expected to ease in Week 2 (1 – 7 February 2021).

The MJO signal that was present in the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) in the middle of January has weakened and is no longer discernable. Some models predict an MJO signal to emerge again in the Western Pacific (Phase 6 or 7) in Week 1.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.