Subseasonal Weather Outlook (25 July – 7 August 2022)
Issued: 22 July 2022
First forecast week: 25 July – 31 July
Second forecast week: 1 August – 7 August
Wetter conditions are expected over most of the equatorial ASEAN region in the next fortnight (25 July – 7 August). The highest likelihood of wetter conditions are predicted over the western Maritime Continent and the central parts of equatorial region in Week 1 (25 – 31 July), and over the central-eastern parts of equatorial region in Week 2 (1 – 7 August).
Drier conditions are expected over Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (25 – 31 July). These drier conditions are expected to ease in Week 2 (1 – 7 August), apart from over southern half of Myanmar.
Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over the northern half of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (25 July – 7 August).
By the second week of July, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal had decayed over the eastern Maritime Continent (Phase 5) and became indiscernible based on the RMM index. Most models predict the MJO signal to emerge over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phase 1) during the start of the forecast period, and to propagate eastwards over the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) by Week 1.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.