Subseasonal Weather Outlook (26 December 2022 – 8 January 2023)
Issued: 23 December 2022
First forecast week: 26 December 2022 – 1 January 2023
Second forecast week: 2 January 2023 – 8 January 2023
Wetter conditions are expected over the southern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (26 December 2022 – 1 January 2023). Wetter conditions are also predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (26 December 2022 – 8 January 2023), extending to southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (2 – 8 January 2023). Drier conditions are predicted over the western Maritime Continent and the equatorial region in Week 1.
Cooler than usual temperature is predicted over much of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (26 December 2022 – 8 January 2023). Cooler conditions are also expected over much of the western and southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over parts of the eastern equatorial region in Week 1 (26 December 2022 – 1 January 2023).
In the third week of December, a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) based on the RMM index. Most models predict this MJO signal to propagate eastwards to the Western Pacific (Phase 6) in Week 1. There is a disagreement between the models for the MJO signal to either decay or continue propagating eastwards in Week 2.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.