Subseasonal Weather Outlook (26 July – 8 August 2021)

Issued 23 July 2021
First forecast week: 26 July – 1 August
Second forecast week: 2 August – 8 August


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


Drier conditions are expected in the next fortnight (26 July – 8 August) over much of the northern ASEAN region. While the outlook is for generally drier than average conditions for the area outlined, there still may be isolated regions of wetter than average rainfall, particularly for Mainland Southeast Asia.

Wetter conditions are expected in Week 2 (2 – 8 August) over much of the southern and western Maritime Continent.

Warmer temperatures than usual are expected over much of the ASEAN region during the next fortnight (26 July – 8 August), apart from northwestern Mainland Southeast Asia.

An MJO signal was present over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) in the middle of July. Most models predict the MJO to weaken as it moves over the Western Pacific (Phase 6) at the start of Week 1 (26 July – 1 August).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.