Subseasonal Weather Outlook (27 July – 9 August 2020)

Issued 27 July 2020
First forecast week: 27 Jul – 2 Aug
Second forecast week: 3 Aug – 9 Aug


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

In the first forecast week (27 Jul – 2 Aug), wetter conditions are expected over much of the equatorial region, as well as southern and eastern coastal regions of Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines.

In the second forecast week (3 Aug – 9 Aug), wetter conditions are expected over eastern Southeast Asia and over the southern and eastern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia as highlighted in the rainfall map.

Drier conditions are expected over southern parts of Southeast Asia (southern Sumatra and Java). In the second week, drier conditions are also expected to develop over the rest of Sumatra and the region covering Peninsular Malaysia and western Borneo.

Warmer conditions are expected over northern Southeast Asia, particularly in the first forecast week. In the second week, warmer conditions are expected to develop over the western equatorial region, in line with the drier conditions.

While there are some signs of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal in the western Indian Ocean, the models are inconsistent in their predictions for the signal to continue during the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.