Subseasonal Weather Outlook (27 June – 10 July 2022)
Issued: 24 June 2022
First forecast week: 27 June – 3 July
Second forecast week: 4 July – 10 July
Wetter conditions are expected over much of the southern half of the Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (27 June – 10 July). Wetter conditions are also expected over northern Mainland Southeast Asia and northern Philippines in Week 1 (27 June – 3 July).
Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over the southeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (27 June – 10 July). Warmer than usual temperatures are also expected over southern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (27 June – 3 July) and predicted to persist over southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (4 – 10 July).
In the third week of June, there were signs of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal in the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) based on the RMM Index. Most models predict an MJO signal to develop and propagate eastwards through the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) in Week 1. Some models predict the MJO signal to continue propagating eastwards through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) in Week 2.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.