Subseasonal Weather Outlook (27 May – 9 June 2024)

Issued: 23 May 2024
First forecast week: 27 May – 2 June 2024
Second forecast week: 3 – 9 June 2024


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are predicted over most of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (27 May – 2 June).

Drier conditions are predicted over much of the western Maritime Continent in Week 2 (3 – 9 June).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent and the southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (27 May – 9 June).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) in the third week of May based on the RMM index. Most models predict this signal to propagate eastwards through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) in Week 1, before weakening and becoming inactive in Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.