Subseasonal Weather Outlook (27 November – 10 December 2023)

Issued: 24 November 2023
First forecast week: 27 November – 3 December 2023
Second forecast week: 4 December – 10 December 2023


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of southern Mainland Southeast Asia and the northern Malay Peninsula in the next fortnight (27 November – 10 December). Also, wetter conditions are predicted over much of the central and southeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight.

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and eastern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia during the next fortnight (27 November – 10 December).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal has been present over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) since mid-November. Models predict the MJO signal to propagate eastwards, reaching the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) by the start of the forecast period. Most models predict the signal to weaken in Phase 3 during the first week.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.