Subseasonal Weather Outlook (28 December 2020 – 10 January 2021)

Issued 24 December 2020
First forecast week: 28 December – 3 January
Second forecast week: 4 January – 10 January


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

For the next fortnight (28 December 2020 – 10 January 2021), an increased chance of wetter conditions is predicted over parts of northern ASEAN region, in particular the Philippines, northern Borneo, southern Viet Nam, Cambodia, southern Thailand and Peninsular Malaysia. A lower increase in likelihood of wetter conditions is also predicted around the southeastern part of the Maritime Continent in the second week (4 – 10 January 2021).

An increased chance of cooler conditions is predicted over most of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (28 December 2020 – 10 January 2021).

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal is becoming indiscernible over the Western Pacific (Phase 6). Some dynamical models predict the MJO to re-emerge over the Indian Ocean in early January 2021, propagating eastwards towards the Maritime Continent in the second week.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.