Subseasonal Weather Outlook (29 April – 12 May 2024)

Issued: 25 April 2024
First forecast week: 29 April – 5 May 2024
Second forecast week: 6 – 12 May 2024


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Drier conditions are predicted over much of the central and southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia and northern parts of the Maritime Continent in Week 1 (29 April – 5 May). These drier conditions are predicted to persist over much of the northeastern Maritime Continent and ease elsewhere in Week 2 (6 – 12 May).

Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the equatorial region in the next fortnight (29 April – 12 May).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted to persist over most of Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (29 April – 12 May).

No Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present in the middle of April based on the RMM index. Some models predict an MJO signal to develop over the Indian Ocean (Phase 3) and then propagate through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) during Week 1, and through the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) during Week 2. Other models predict no significant MJO activity during the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.