Subseasonal Weather Outlook (3 – 16 April 2023)

Issued: 31 March 2023
First forecast week: 3 April 2023 – 9 April 2023
Second forecast week: 10 April 2023 – 16 April 2023


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


Drier conditions are expected over much of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (3 – 9 April), in particular over central parts of Mainland Southeast Asia. Drier conditions are also predicted over parts of the western and central Maritime Continent in Week 2 (10 – 16 April).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (3 – 9 April), in line with the predicted drier conditions. These warmer conditions are predicted to persist over central Mainland Southeast Asia and gradually ease elsewhere in Week 2 (10 – 16 April).

No discernible Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present at the end of March. Most models predict an MJO signal to emerge in the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) during Week 1 and then slowly propagate eastwards over the rest of the forecast period. However, some models predict no discernible MJO signal during this time.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.