Subseasonal Weather Outlook (3 – 16 October 2022)

Issued: 30 September 2022
First forecast week: 3 October – 9 October
Second forecast week: 10 October – 16 October


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


For rainfall, wetter conditions are predicted over most of the southern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (3 – 16 October). Drier conditions are predicted over the western Maritime Continent in Week 2 (10 – 16 October).

For temperature, cooler than usual temperature is predicted over much of the central Maritime Continent in line with the wetter conditions in the next fortnight (3 – 16 October).

No clear Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present at the end of September. Most models forecast an MJO signal to emerge over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) in Week 1 and propagate eastwards towards the Western Pacific (Phase 6).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.