Subseasonal Weather Outlook (30 October – 12 November 2023)
Issued: 27 October 2023
First forecast week: 30 October – 5 November 2023
Second forecast week: 6 November – 12 November 2023
Drier conditions are predicted over much of the southwestern and central Maritime Continent in Week 1 (30 October – 5 November). These drier conditions are predicted to persist in Week 2 (6 – 12 November), particularly over much of the southwestern and southern Maritime Continent.
Wetter conditions are predicted over central Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (30 October – 5 November).
Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (30 October – 5 November). These warmer conditions are predicted to gradually ease in Week 2 (6 – 12 November). Over much of the Maritime Continent, warmer than usual temperature is predicted in the next fortnight (30 October – 12 November).
During the second half of October, no clear Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present. Most models predict an MJO signal over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) during the forecast period based on the RMM Index.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.